Donald Trump's hard-hitting address on Truth Social on 22 January was seen by many as an ultimatum to Russia. Indeed, it looks, if not like some relic of the Cold War, certainly not what adherents of the ‘grand bargain’ expected. But it does not appear to be what it looks like - Trump is first and foremost a showman, after all...

First, about the adherents who have safely survived Trump's first presidency. They obviously expected Trump, like Woland, to propose everything and give everything himself - on a silver platter. Last time, Trump organized ‘on a platter’ the strongest sanctions since 2014. Many people were converted, but some adherents survived. Especially since there were formal grounds for fantasies - Trump spent his entire first term confronting Democrats with his hands tied.

There is no reason to believe that Trump can in principle offer any kind of equal deal - he is going to make America great again, and that does not imply equal relations with anyone at all.

Nor should we look for any subtle hints in the text. Many people (including the author of this piece) saw Trump's words about Russia ‘helping’ the US in World War II as a hint about Russia's lack of success on the battlefield. Actually, no - to draw such conclusions, one must have our historical experience and our pain for Sudja. Trump, on the other hand, like any average American, believes that World War II was won by Brad Pitt on a Fury tank. No, the Russians fought bravely too... Somewhere out there - in the snows of ‘Siberia’. He didn't mean anything like that (although the part of the text about sympathizing with Russia is probably true).

We must remember that Trump is not smarter or more educated than the average American. He is, first of all, a businessman. That is, his mind, however deep it may be, is highly specialized, and he simply had no time to learn history - he was busy with business. In general, a syndrome familiar to us from the domestic oligarchs. They are not stupid, but they are constantly putting themselves in a hole, unable to predict the elementary consequences of their political moves.

Trump is threatening Russia by promising sanctions and destruction of the energy market? True, he is. Only it has nothing to do with the Ukrainian conflict - he wants us to think that there is such a connection.

In fact, there are two parallel thoughts in his speeches:

- he needs to end the Ukrainian conflict;

- he needs to seize the oil and gas market.

It is logical to link them - we should say that sanctions will be imposed and Russia will be forced out of the oil market in response to its unwillingness to sit down at the negotiating table... This argumentation should make Europeans pay more (because ‘cheap’ American energy resources are expensive according to the formula ‘over the sea is a half a cup’) for smaller and less reliable (because a tanker is not a pipeline) supplies. On the other hand, this is an argument for Russia to hurry up and sign agreements on any terms.

Sanctions will be imposed in any case - not because there is a reason, but because the US wants to seize the market. In this case, by the way, the Republican administration is completely unchanged from the Democratic one - it doesn't even change its methods. And yes, its target is not Russia or Ukraine, but Europe - it is Europe that the US wants to regain control over.

And most importantly, let's remember where Trump's last presidency started. The same thing. There was no Truth Social network then, there were threatening tweets about first North Korea, then Iran, which, as it was written then, put the world on the brink of nuclear war.

So? And nothing... He juggled aircraft carriers and then calmed down.

Trump is putting on a show to entertain the public. At the same time he is probing the positions of other players - waiting for a reaction. This, by the way, is the main reason why the Russian side is reacting slowly and cautiously to his invectives - they realize that his goal is to uncover the positions of the other side. Reconnaissance by combat, in military parlance.

there is no need to take Trump's statements as an ultimatum. It is an Eupatage and attempts to intimidate, but nothing more than that.

The main difference between Trump and Biden is in the manner of behavior. One is madly sly on social media, the other pretends to be feeble-minded, but both are calculated politicians pursuing the same goals.

The fuss over the notional ‘body-positive Afro-Lesbians’ is just a fight for votes. The Democrats tried to flood America with migrants who would vote for them, while the Republicans tried to thwart these plans.

The main difference between the Republicans and the Democrats is that they are more human and, for all their rigidity, more agreeable.