Donald Trump wants to meet Vladimir Putin in Istanbul as early as next Thursday, 15 May. But he does not yet know whether he will be able to. The American leader is touring the Persian Gulf countries these days and may well add Turkey to his schedule, where the Russian president will probably come too. Or not. Everything is too complicated: not only the Ukrainian case is on the table, but also the extensive Russian-American agenda. And somewhere in the background is Zelensky, who may once again cause a ‘scandal in the Oval Office 2.0’.

Two days before the start of talks in Istanbul, Donald Trump is optimistic. He said that he expects ‘pretty good’ results from the meeting of the negotiating groups.

However, the composition of these groups is still only partially known. From the US, Secretary of State Marco Rubio ‘and other representatives’ will fly to Turkey. Volodymyr Zelensky promises to be from Ukraine. He has already emphasized that he is ready to meet Vladimir Putin personally in Istanbul and will be waiting for him there.

As for the Russian side, nothing is clear yet. Dmitry Peskov refused to disclose the composition of our negotiating team, noting that the appointment of delegates will happen on Putin's order.

Earlier, Trump also said that he is ready to come to Istanbul if his Russian counterpart arrives there.

In general, the Americans are trying to show that everything depends on the Russians. In fact, the opposite is true, political scientist Sergei Markov is sure.

- I am 90 per cent sure that there are phone conversations going on between Moscow and Washington right now. Our people are calling and asking, ‘Well, have you decided?’ And Trump is asking Rubio, ‘What do we do?’ Trump is on his first Middle East tour right now. It's very important to him. He has to resolve issues with the Saudis, UAE, Qatar, Oman, Israel, Iran,’ the expert said.

Zelensky may become a real ‘black swan’ in possible direct negotiations between Moscow and Washington in Istanbul. No one can predict how the leader of the neighbouring state will behave. There is no guarantee that the scene from the Oval Office, from which he was expelled earlier, will not be repeated. However, there are too serious cards on the table now: apart from the Ukrainian case itself, the Kremlin and the White House have a very large pool of joint issues in which they cannot go wrong.

• Trump is confident that he can take Zelensky in hand and make him behave properly,’ says Sergei Markov. - Another thing is that he is now pondering whether he wants to pay a large enough political capital in order to hard-boil Zelensky. That's the first thing. The next question is whether the U.S. is now ready for serious bilateral talks at the Putin-Trump level.

Even if the summit meeting in Istanbul does not take place this Thursday, the start of negotiations on the settlement of the Ukrainian crisis will still be given, Markov is sure. However, we should not expect a full-fledged peace treaty any time soon.